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We analyze IPOs and use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems.
Todays deep-dive is on a Julius Erving 1972 Topps PSA 9. It will IPO on Otis 26 February 2021.
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Table of Contents
What is Julius Erving’s Rookie Card?
This is a 1972 Topps basketball card featuring Julius “Dr J” Erving. It’s one of 158 known cards rated at PSA 9. There’s only one PSA 10, and it’s never been sold as far as I know.
The card shows Dr J playing for the old ABA Virginia Squires, who folded in 1976.
The 1972 set contains quite a few cool cards, including Phil Jackson’s rookie card and a great looking Wilt Chamberlain.
Cultural Relevance
Regarded as one of the greatest and most influential basketball players of all time, Erving helped legitimize the American Basketball Association (ABA) and was the best-known player in that league when it merged into the National Basketball Association (NBA) after the 1975–76 season.
Erving won three championships, four Most Valuable Player Awards, and three scoring titles with the ABA’s Virginia Squires and New York Nets (now the NBA’s Brooklyn Nets) and the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers. During his 16 seasons as a player none of his teams ever missed the postseason. He is the eighth-highest scorer in ABA/NBA history with 30,026 points (NBA and ABA combined).\
Dr J was a prolific dunker and was known for slam dunking from the free throw line during dunk contests.
Watch him embarass now-hippie Bill Walton in the NBA finals.
Also watch his iconic behind the backboard layup
Erving still gets around 60k Google searches per month, and his popularity doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon.
Of the five players on the consensus all 70s team, only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar gets more search traffic than Dr J. It’s said that while KAJ may have been the best player of the decade (and maybe all time), Dr J was the real star.
Inferred Value – $50,000
This card sold on eBay a couple days ago for $50k, which is our Inferred Value. This auction is probably what’s pushed Otis to IPO it so suddenly.
Even before this auction, though, the card was worth a good deal more than the IPO value of $15,800.
I expect to see significant share caps on this one. Perhaps as low as $100.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
Risk Profile
Recent Growth Trend
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Dr J’s PSA 9 rookie has always lagged a bit behind–but moved in lockstep with–Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s PSA 8. They’ve got similar populations and had similar(ish) profiles in their day.
Both have a heck of a lot of room to appreciate against more modern stars’ cards with similar populations.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 30 day lockup period then will trade daily.
Platform Risk
Intangibles
Look at that afro.
Other ways you can invest in Dr J
If you don’t fancy the card above, or if you’re frustrated by the share cap, you have a variety of options to invest in Dr J on eBay for reasonable price points. Here are a couple favourites.
Julius Erving autographed rookie card
$1,999 (link)
Julius Erving Bobblehead
$149 (link)
(I’ve made these affiliate links just in case anyone does buy something)
Due Diligence Service
If you’re looking to make a big asset investment, we can help you perform due diligence. Stefan created and run Flippa’s Due Diligence program, and can offer the same service to you.
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